(NEWS) Plastics & Disease Burden: Lancet analysis shows 83 million DALYs by 2040

The global plastic life cycle is causing a massive health burden: A new Lancet Planetary Health analysis quantifies for the first time a cumulative 83 million DALYs between 2016 and 2040 – healthy years of life lost due to climate change, air pollution and toxic chemicals.

In 2040 alone, 4.5 million DALYs will be generated. The good news: systemic changes with a significant reduction in primary production could save 43% of health damage, but even optimistic scenarios show further increases in burdens.

Plastic is ubiquitous – not only in our environment, but also as an invisible driver of chronic health problems. Until now, however, a comprehensive quantification that considers the entire life cycle from production to disposal has been lacking. A groundbreaking study in the renowned journal Lancet Planetary Health now closes this gap.

The analysis vividly demonstrates that we are paying for our plastic consumption not only with money, but also with valuable time. 83 million DALYs (Disability-Adjusted Life Years) will be lost cumulatively by 2040 if we continue as we are ("business as usual"). This is equivalent to the global burden of disease caused by illnesses such as hepatitis B.

What the Lancet analysis shows

The researchers used the “Plastics-to-Ocean” model combined with a life cycle analysis (LCA) to calculate the impacts from 2016 to 2040.

• Massive increase: While 2.1 million DALYs were caused by plastic in 2016, this number will more than double to 4.5 million DALYs per year by 2040.

• Main driver production: Surprisingly, the majority of the health burden (82%) does not arise at the end (from waste), but at the very beginning: in the primary production of plastic from fossil raw materials.

• The real causes: The study identified three main factors for the loss of healthy life years:

  • Climate change (40%): Emissions are driving heat waves, malnutrition, and infectious diseases.

  • Air pollution (32%): Fine dust from production and combustion damages the lungs and heart.

  • Toxic chemicals (30%): Carcinogenic substances and endocrine disruptors put a strain on the body.

Mechanisms: How plastic makes you sick

The study makes it clear that plastic is far more than just a waste problem in the ocean. The mechanisms are complex and directly affect us:

Air pollution and particulate matter: The production of polymers and the open burning of waste generate particles that penetrate deep into the lungs. This significantly increases the risk of respiratory diseases, heart attacks, and strokes.

Chemical contamination: Plastics contain thousands of additives, many of which are toxic. These enter the environment and the food chain. The study highlights that the opaque composition of many plastics makes an accurate risk assessment particularly difficult, meaning the actual risk is likely even higher.

Practical relevance: What can we do?

The results are alarming, but they also point to possible solutions. A "system change" scenario could save approximately 43% of annual DALYs by 2040. The most effective lever here is not recycling (which only helps to a limited extent), but rather reducing new production .

For you in everyday life, this means:

• Avoid waste before recycle: Every piece of plastic not produced is better than a recycled one. Opt for reusable systems and unpackaged goods.

• Conscious consumption: Look for durable products made from alternative materials (glass, stainless steel, wood) wherever possible.

• Political voice: Support calls for stricter rules on plastic production and transparency regarding ingredients.

Who is this relevant for? Target groups

This issue affects us all, but certain groups are particularly vulnerable:

• Children and pregnant women: They are more sensitive to hormonally active chemicals in plastic products.

• People with pre-existing conditions: Those who already suffer from asthma or cardiovascular problems are more severely affected by the additional air pollution.

• Conscious consumers: Those who want to protect their health and the environment will find scientific arguments for a "low-waste" lifestyle here.

Comparison: Plastic vs. Alternatives

However, the study warns against jumping to conclusions: alternatives also come at a price.

• Glass and paper: These materials often score better in terms of health impact, but sometimes consume more energy in their production or transport. Nevertheless, the "System Change" scenario shows that a combination of reduction and sensible alternatives (e.g., reusable glass) has net positive effects.

• Bioplastics (PLA): The picture here is mixed. PLA performs worse than expected in some areas, as its production (agriculture, fertilizers, energy) also generates health burdens.

Restrictions and limitations

Like any model, this study also has limitations that you should be aware of:

• Data gaps: The direct effects of micro- and nanoplastics in the human body (e.g., in the blood or brain) could not yet be factored in due to a lack of data. The actual disease burden is therefore likely even higher.

• Focus on 64%: The study covers approximately 64% of global plastic production (mainly packaging and municipal waste), but not all industrial sectors.

• Uncertainty: Since many chemical compositions of plastics are trade secrets, the researchers sometimes had to make estimates.

Disclaimer:

This article is for informational purposes only and does not replace medical advice. The content is based on current scientific studies (as of March 2026), but may change due to new research findings. Always consult qualified medical personnel for health concerns.

Sources & Further Reading

1. Main source (Tier-1): Deeney M et al. Global health burdens of plastics: a lifecycle assessment model from 2016 to 2040. Lancet Planetary Health . 2026 Jan;10(1):101406. DOI: 10.1016/j.lanplh.2025.101406

2. Tier-1: Cabernard L et al. Growing environmental footprint of plastics driven by coal combustion. Nature Sustainability . 2022;5:139-148. DOI: 10.1038/s41893-021-00807-2

3. Tier-1: Landrigan PJ et al. The Lancet Countdown on health and plastics. The Lancet . 2025. DOI: (Referenced in text)

4. Tier-2: Landrigan PJ et al. The Minderoo-Monaco Commission on Plastics and Human Health. Annals of Global Health . 2023;89(1):23. DOI: 10.5334/aogh.4056

5. Further data: UNEP. From Pollution to Solution: A global assessment of marine litter and plastic pollution. 2021.

6. Background: OECD. Global Plastics Outlook: Economic Drivers, Environmental Impacts and Policy Options. 2022.

7. Methodology: Ecoinvent Database version 3.8 & 3.10 (cutoff) data (used for LCA).

8. Model: Plastics-to-Ocean (P2O) model (basis of the calculation).